The continent is under immense pressure to industrialise and provide reliable, affordable energy to fuel its growth, yet it faces the paradox of doing so in a world that is racing to curb carbon emissions. While renewable energy is undoubtedly Africa’s future, the reality is that the transition cannot happen overnight. Fossil fuels remain a critical part of the continent’s energy mix, and as Africa seeks to lift millions out of poverty and create sustainable development, the question arises: what will Africa’s contribution to global warming be if it prioritises fossil fuel use for development?
To answer this, we must first put Africa’s fossil fuel use into perspective. As of 2021, the continent accounted for just 4% of global carbon emissions - minuscule when compared to the emissions from industrialised nations. Even if African countries ramp up their fossil fuel use in the short term, their emissions would still pale in comparison to the historical and ongoing emissions from the global north. This is not a justification for unchecked pollution, but a recognition of Africa’s right to pursue a balanced approach to development that prioritises the needs of its people while gradually transitioning to cleaner energy sources.
Africa’s fossil fuel reserves - oil, coal and natural gas - offer a short-term solution to the continent’s energy poverty. Millions of Africans still live without electricity and the lack of access to reliable energy stifles economic growth, limits education and exacerbates inequality. Africa can generate the energy needed to power industries, create jobs and build infrastructure, all of which are essential for its development by strategically using these resources. While this will contribute to emissions, Africa’s overall carbon footprint will remain low in comparison to other continents, especially given the advanced technologies that can minimise environmental damage.
Africa’s contribution to global warming through fossil fuel use will be mitigated by its vast potential for carbon sequestration. The continent is home to some of the world’s largest carbon sinks, including the Congo Basin, which absorbs millions of tonnes of CO2 annually. Protecting and restoring forests, wetlands and other ecosystems will enable Africa to offset a significant portion of its emissions. This approach allows the continent to pursue development without disproportionately adding to the global carbon burden.
But Africa’s energy future must be approached with foresight. Prioritising fossil fuels does not mean abandoning renewables. In fact, African countries can leverage the revenues generated from fossil fuel industries to invest in renewable energy infrastructure. We can achieve our development goals without locking ourselves into a carbon-intensive future by adopting a phased approach - one that gradually shifts from fossil fuels to solar, wind and geothermal power. Countries like Nigeria and South Africa, which are major producers of oil and coal, are already exploring ways to diversify their energy sources while ensuring that their populations benefit from the wealth generated by fossil fuels.
The world’s largest polluters must also recognise their role in this equation. Africa should not be held to the same standards as the nations that have spent centuries industrialising at the expense of the planet. Any transition away from fossil fuels must be supported by substantial international investment, technology transfer and capacity building. Wealthy countries like the United States, Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Australia, Italy and Norway, which have contributed the most to global warming, have a moral obligation to provide the financial resources necessary for Africa to leapfrog into a green economy without sacrificing its developmental needs.
While Africa’s prioritisation of fossil fuel use for development will contribute to global emissions, its overall impact will remain minimal compared to the industrialised world. The continent has the right to use its resources to improve the lives of its people, but it must do so strategically, using the revenues from fossil fuels to fund a transition to renewable energy. Balancing its immediate needs with a long-term vision for sustainability will allow Africa to continue its growth without worsening global warming. The responsibility for addressing climate change still rests with the major polluters, who must not only reduce their emissions but also support Africa’s pursuit of a more equitable and sustainable future.